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Oriku vs Luzi 2008 — 1st Division 2019

Oriku
Oriku
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
2/11/20231st Division1st Division · Round 15Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Oriku52%
×Draw26%
Luzi 200822%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriku
1.50
Luzi 2008
0.87

Oriku creates 72% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 31 away

creates per match

Oriku
1.28
Luzi 2008
0.97

allows per match

Oriku
0.77
Luzi 2008
1.71

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par
Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Luzi 2008 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oriku or draw
78%
Oriku or Luzi 2008
74%
Draw or Luzi 2008
48%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+
27%
Luzi 2008 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals
78%
Oriku 2+ goals
44%
Oriku 3+ goals
19%
Luzi 2008 1+ goals
58%
Luzi 2008 2+ goals
22%
Luzi 2008 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)
70%
Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oriku scores more
52%
level
26%
Luzi 2008 scores more
22%

Oriku at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriku vs Luzi 2008

Oriku beat Luzi 2008 3-2 in 1st Division on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Orikum in Orikum.