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Oriku vs Lushnja — 1st Division 2019

Oriku
Oriku
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lushnja
Lushnja
2/1/20201st Division1st Division · Round 14Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Oriku51%
×Draw27%
Lushnja22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriku
1.43
Lushnja
0.82

Oriku creates 74% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 99 away

creates per match

Oriku
1.28
Lushnja
0.88

allows per match

Oriku
0.77
Lushnja
1.58

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par
Lushnja+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Lushnja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oriku or draw
78%
Oriku or Lushnja
73%
Draw or Lushnja
49%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+
26%
Lushnja wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals
76%
Oriku 2+ goals
42%
Oriku 3+ goals
17%
Lushnja 1+ goals
56%
Lushnja 2+ goals
20%
Lushnja 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)
70%
Lushnja (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Lushnja away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Lushnja defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Lushnja attack 0.88 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oriku scores more
51%
level
27%
Lushnja scores more
22%

Oriku at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriku vs Lushnja

Oriku beat Lushnja 1-0 in 1st Division on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Orikum in Orikum.