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Oriku vs Korabi Peshkopi — 1st Division 2019

Oriku
Oriku
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
11/5/20221st Division1st Division · Round 9Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Oriku47%
×Draw29%
Korabi Peshkopi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriku
1.29
Korabi Peshkopi
0.85

Oriku creates 52% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 103 away

creates per match

Oriku
1.28
Korabi Peshkopi
0.93

allows per match

Oriku
0.77
Korabi Peshkopi
1.29

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par
Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Oriku or draw
75%
Oriku or Korabi Peshkopi
71%
Draw or Korabi Peshkopi
53%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+
22%
Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals
72%
Oriku 2+ goals
37%
Oriku 3+ goals
14%
Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
57%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
21%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)
66%
Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oriku scores more
47%
level
29%
Korabi Peshkopi scores more
25%

Oriku at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriku vs Korabi Peshkopi

Oriku and Korabi Peshkopi drew 1-1 in 1st Division on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Orikum in Orikum.