Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oriku vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Oriku
Oriku
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2/15/20201st Division1st Division · Round 16Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Oriku50%
×Draw27%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriku
1.39
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.85

Oriku creates 64% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 32 away

creates per match

Oriku
1.28
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.94

allows per match

Oriku
0.77
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.50

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par
Iliria Fushë-Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Iliria Fushë-Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oriku or draw
77%
Oriku or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
73%
Draw or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
50%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+
24%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals
75%
Oriku 2+ goals
40%
Oriku 3+ goals
16%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1+ goals
57%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2+ goals
21%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)
68%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Iliria Fushë-Krujë away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Iliria Fushë-Krujë defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Iliria Fushë-Krujë attack 0.94 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oriku scores more
50%
level
27%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë scores more
23%

Oriku at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriku vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Oriku and Iliria Fushë-Krujë drew 0-0 in 1st Division on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Orikum in Orikum.