Oriku 2–4 Dinamo Tirana: Result & Stats

Oriku

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Dinamo Tirana

2/6/2023

1st Division · Round 14Fusha Sportive Orikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Oriku42%

×Draw29%

Dinamo Tirana29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrikuExpected goals in this matchDinamo Tirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.97

Oriku

1.21

Dinamo Tirana

0.97

Oriku creates 25% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

1.28

creates per match

1.17

0.77

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Oriku

1.28

Dinamo Tirana

1.17

allows per match

Oriku

0.77

Dinamo Tirana

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriku+0.00on par

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriku ↓

Dinamo Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Oriku or draw

71%

Oriku or Dinamo Tirana

71%

Draw or Dinamo Tirana

58%

Winning margin

Oriku wins by 2+

18%

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oriku 1+ goals

70%

Oriku 2+ goals

34%

Oriku 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

62%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

25%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oriku (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriku at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.77 · 39 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriku attack 1.28 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.17 + Oriku defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oriku scores more

42%

level

29%

Dinamo Tirana scores more

29%

Oriku at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oriku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff