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Orijent 1919 vs Sibenik — First NL 2018

Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
FT
5 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Sibenik
Sibenik
9/9/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 5Stadion Krimeja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Orijent 191934%
×Draw28%
Sibenik38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orijent 1919
1.10
Sibenik
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 40 away

creates per match

Orijent 1919
1.36
Sibenik
1.27

allows per match

Orijent 1919
1.11
Sibenik
0.85

finishing

Orijent 1919+0.00on par
Sibenik+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orijent 1919 ↓

Sibenik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orijent 1919 or draw
62%
Orijent 1919 or Sibenik
72%
Draw or Sibenik
66%

Winning margin

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+
13%
Sibenik wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Orijent 1919 1+ goals
67%
Orijent 1919 2+ goals
30%
Orijent 1919 3+ goals
10%
Sibenik 1+ goals
70%
Sibenik 2+ goals
33%
Sibenik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)
47%
Sibenik (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orijent 1919 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.11 · 108 matches

Sibenik away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.85 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orijent 1919 attack 1.36 + Sibenik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sibenik attack 1.27 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orijent 1919 scores more
34%
level
28%
Sibenik scores more
38%

Sibenik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sibenik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orijent 1919 vs Sibenik

Orijent 1919 beat Sibenik 5-4 in First NL on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Krimeja in Rijeka.