Orijent 1919 3–0 Dugopolje: Result & Stats

Orijent 1919

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dugopolje

5/30/2026

First NL · Round 33Stadion Krimeja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Orijent 191947%

×Draw26%

Dugopolje27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orijent 1919Expected goals in this matchDugopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.07

Orijent 1919

1.48

Dugopolje

1.07

Orijent 1919 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 119 away

1.36

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Orijent 1919

1.36

Dugopolje

1.03

allows per match

Orijent 1919

1.11

Dugopolje

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Dugopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orijent 1919 ↓

Dugopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Orijent 1919 or draw

73%

Orijent 1919 or Dugopolje

74%

Draw or Dugopolje

53%

Winning margin

Orijent 1919 wins by 2+

23%

Dugopolje wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Orijent 1919 1+ goals

77%

Orijent 1919 2+ goals

43%

Orijent 1919 3+ goals

19%

Dugopolje 1+ goals

66%

Dugopolje 2+ goals

29%

Dugopolje 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)

63%

Dugopolje (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orijent 1919 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.11 · 108 matches

Dugopolje away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.59 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orijent 1919 attack 1.36 + Dugopolje defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dugopolje attack 1.03 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orijent 1919 scores more

47%

level

26%

Dugopolje scores more

27%

Orijent 1919 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orijent 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff