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Orihuela vs Silla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Orihuela
Orihuela
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Silla
Silla
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Estadio Municipal Los Arcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Orihuela59%
×Draw23%
Silla18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orihuela
1.76
Silla
0.85

Orihuela creates 107% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 78 away

creates per match

Orihuela
1.73
Silla
1.00

allows per match

Orihuela
0.70
Silla
1.79

finishing

Orihuela+0.00on par
Silla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orihuela ↓

Silla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Orihuela or draw
82%
Orihuela or Silla
77%
Draw or Silla
41%

Winning margin

Orihuela wins by 2+
33%
Silla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Orihuela 1+ goals
83%
Orihuela 2+ goals
52%
Orihuela 3+ goals
26%
Silla 1+ goals
57%
Silla 2+ goals
21%
Silla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Orihuela (draw refunded)
77%
Silla (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orihuela at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

Silla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orihuela attack 1.73 + Silla defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.76

Silla attack 1.00 + Orihuela defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Orihuela scores more
59%
level
23%
Silla scores more
18%

Orihuela at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Orihuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Orihuela 3–0 Silla

Orihuela beat Silla 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Arcos in Orihuela.