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Orihuela vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Orihuela
Orihuela
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hércules II
Hércules II
4/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 34Estadio Municipal Los Arcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Orihuela54%
×Draw26%
Hércules II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orihuela
1.48
Hércules II
0.76

Orihuela creates 95% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 78 away

creates per match

Orihuela
1.73
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

Orihuela
0.70
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

Orihuela+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orihuela ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orihuela or draw
81%
Orihuela or Hércules II
74%
Draw or Hércules II
46%

Winning margin

Orihuela wins by 2+
28%
Hércules II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Orihuela 1+ goals
77%
Orihuela 2+ goals
43%
Orihuela 3+ goals
19%
Hércules II 1+ goals
53%
Hércules II 2+ goals
18%
Hércules II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Orihuela (draw refunded)
74%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orihuela at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orihuela attack 1.73 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Orihuela defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Orihuela scores more
54%
level
26%
Hércules II scores more
19%

Orihuela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Orihuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Orihuela 3–0 Hércules II

Orihuela beat Hércules II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Arcos in Orihuela.