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Orihuela vs CF Gandía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Orihuela
Orihuela
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
CF Gandía
CF Gandía
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 8Estadio Municipal Los Arcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Orihuela52%
×Draw26%
CF Gandía22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orihuela
1.54
CF Gandía
0.91

Orihuela creates 69% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

creates per match

Orihuela
1.73
CF Gandía
1.13

allows per match

Orihuela
0.70
CF Gandía
1.34

finishing

Orihuela+0.00on par
CF Gandía+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orihuela ↓

CF Gandía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orihuela or draw
78%
Orihuela or CF Gandía
74%
Draw or CF Gandía
48%

Winning margin

Orihuela wins by 2+
27%
CF Gandía wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Orihuela 1+ goals
79%
Orihuela 2+ goals
45%
Orihuela 3+ goals
20%
CF Gandía 1+ goals
60%
CF Gandía 2+ goals
23%
CF Gandía 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Orihuela (draw refunded)
70%
CF Gandía (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orihuela at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

CF Gandía away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orihuela attack 1.73 + CF Gandía defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

CF Gandía attack 1.13 + Orihuela defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orihuela scores more
52%
level
26%
CF Gandía scores more
22%

Orihuela at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orihuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orihuela vs CF Gandía

Orihuela beat CF Gandía 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Arcos in Orihuela.