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Oriente Petrolero vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
11/28/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 32Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Oriente Petrolero62%
×Draw21%
Vaca Díez18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriente Petrolero
2.08
Vaca Díez
1.02

Oriente Petrolero creates 104% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 16 away

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.73
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.04
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw
82%
Oriente Petrolero or Vaca Díez
79%
Draw or Vaca Díez
38%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
38%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
87%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
61%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
34%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
64%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
27%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
78%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.08

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more
62%
level
21%
Vaca Díez scores more
18%

Oriente Petrolero at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Oriente Petrolero 1–0 Vaca Díez

Oriente Petrolero beat Vaca Díez 1-0 in Primera División on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.