Oriente Petrolero 2–1 Universitario de Vinto

Oriente Petrolero

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Universitario de Vinto

M. Riquelme 67'

G. Álvarez 56'

J. Cuellar 81'

5/19/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Oriente Petrolero55%

×Draw24%

Universitario de Vinto21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchUniversitario de Vinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.93

Oriente Petrolero

1.69

Universitario de Vinto

0.93

Oriente Petrolero creates 82% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 77 away

1.71

creates per match

0.81

1.05

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.71

Universitario de Vinto

0.81

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.05

Universitario de Vinto

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Universitario de Vinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Universitario de Vinto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw

79%

Oriente Petrolero or Universitario de Vinto

76%

Draw or Universitario de Vinto

45%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

30%

Universitario de Vinto wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

82%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

50%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

24%

Universitario de Vinto 1+ goals

61%

Universitario de Vinto 2+ goals

24%

Universitario de Vinto 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

73%

Universitario de Vinto (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.05 · 129 matches

Universitario de Vinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.71 + Universitario de Vinto defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Universitario de Vinto attack 0.81 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more

55%

level

24%

Universitario de Vinto scores more

21%

Oriente Petrolero at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

G. Álvarez

Oriente Petrolero · F

8.2

Match Events

40'

Erwin Junior Sánchez

46'

M. Riquelme← D. Barreto

56'

G. Álvarez↳ D. Rodriguez

59'

Maximiliano Ezequiel Nunez

62'

A. Llano← R. Castro

62'

J. Cuellar← L. Arana

62'

P. Alcocer← P. Laredo

67'

M. Riquelme↳ G. Álvarez

73'

76'

76'

81'

82'

86'

K. Salvatierra← D. Rodriguez

87'

Roberto Diez

89'

H. Rojas← G. Álvarez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrienteUniversitario

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots6

3Corners3

13Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots6

9On Target3

6Off Target3

0Blocked0

9Inside Box2

6Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

401Total Passes336

315Accurate Passes238

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Oriente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto

Oriente Petrolero beat Universitario de Vinto 2-1 in Primera División on May 19, 2024.

Goals: G. Álvarez (56'), M. Riquelme (67'), J. Cuellar (81').

Oriente Petrolero controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.

Oriente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Oriente Petrolero vs Universitario de Vinto