Oriente Petrolero 2–1 Independiente Petrolero

Oriente Petrolero

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente Petrolero

9/23/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 22Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Oriente Petrolero53%

×Draw23%

Independiente Petrolero24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.15

Oriente Petrolero

1.83

Independiente Petrolero

1.15

Oriente Petrolero creates 59% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 91 away

1.73

creates per match

1.26

1.04

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.73

Independiente Petrolero

1.26

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.04

Independiente Petrolero

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw

76%

Oriente Petrolero or Independiente Petrolero

77%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

47%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

30%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

84%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

54%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

28%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

68%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

32%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

69%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more

53%

level

23%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

24%

Oriente Petrolero at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff