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Oriente Petrolero vs Club Universitario — Primera División 2019

Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Club Universitario
Club Universitario
9/11/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Oriente Petrolero63%
×Draw22%
Club Universitario15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriente Petrolero
1.89
Club Universitario
0.81

Oriente Petrolero creates 133% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 22 away

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.73
Club Universitario
0.59

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero
1.04
Club Universitario
2.05

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par
Club Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Club Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw
85%
Oriente Petrolero or Club Universitario
78%
Draw or Club Universitario
37%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+
37%
Club Universitario wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals
85%
Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals
56%
Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals
29%
Club Universitario 1+ goals
56%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
19%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)
80%
Club Universitario (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 131 matches

Club Universitario away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.73 + Club Universitario defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.89

Club Universitario attack 0.59 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more
63%
level
22%
Club Universitario scores more
15%

Oriente Petrolero at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriente Petrolero vs Club Universitario

Oriente Petrolero beat Club Universitario 1-0 in Primera División on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.