Oriente Petrolero 1–0 Aurora: Result & Stats

Oriente Petrolero

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aurora

C. García 34'

11/12/2023

Primera División · Round 30Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Oriente Petrolero58%

×Draw21%

Aurora21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchAurora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.23

Oriente Petrolero

2.15

Aurora

1.23

Oriente Petrolero creates 75% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.96

creates per match

1.38

1.08

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.96

Aurora

1.38

allows per match

Oriente Petrolero

1.08

Aurora

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Aurora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriente Petrolero ↓

Aurora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Oriente Petrolero or draw

79%

Oriente Petrolero or Aurora

79%

Draw or Aurora

42%

Winning margin

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

36%

Aurora wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

88%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

63%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

36%

Aurora 1+ goals

71%

Aurora 2+ goals

35%

Aurora 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

73%

Aurora (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriente Petrolero at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Aurora away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.96 + Aurora defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.15

Aurora attack 1.38 + Oriente Petrolero defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Oriente Petrolero scores more

58%

level

21%

Aurora scores more

21%

Oriente Petrolero at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Oriente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Rodríguez

Oriente Petrolero · D

6.9

Match Events

18'

David Akologo

28'

Javier Vargas

34'

C. García↳ J. Sánchez

45+1'

J. Mercado← C. Árabe

46'

Darío Torrico← C. Sejas

46'

Serginho← F. Aguilar

51'

F. Roca← J. Vargas

73'

C. Álvarez← J. Berdecio

73'

L. Zeballos← J. Cristaldo

76'

A. Sánchez← J. Reinoso

76'

Y. Vallejos← R. Ramallo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrienteAurora

Overview

54%Possession46%

3Total Shots0

3Corners0

3Fouls3

Shots

3Total Shots0

0On Target0

1Off Target0

2Blocked0

2Inside Box0

1Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

78Total Passes70

43Accurate Passes42

55%Pass Accuracy60%

Discipline

3Fouls3

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1