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Oriental vs Villa Espanola — Segunda División 2026

Oriental
Oriental
FT
1 – 2
Villa Espanola
Villa Espanola
4/10/2016Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Eduardo Martínez Monegal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Oriental35%
×Draw28%
Villa Espanola37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriental
1.19
Villa Espanola
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 43 away

creates per match

Oriental
1.19
Villa Espanola
1.26

allows per match

Oriental
1.18
Villa Espanola
1.19

finishing

Oriental+0.00on par
Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental ↓

Villa Espanola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oriental or draw
63%
Oriental or Villa Espanola
72%
Draw or Villa Espanola
65%

Winning margin

Oriental wins by 2+
15%
Villa Espanola wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Oriental 1+ goals
70%
Oriental 2+ goals
33%
Oriental 3+ goals
12%
Villa Espanola 1+ goals
70%
Villa Espanola 2+ goals
34%
Villa Espanola 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oriental (draw refunded)
49%
Villa Espanola (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriental at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

Villa Espanola away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriental attack 1.19 + Villa Espanola defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Villa Espanola attack 1.26 + Oriental defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oriental scores more
35%
level
28%
Villa Espanola scores more
37%

Villa Espanola at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Villa Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Oriental 1–2 Villa Espanola

Villa Espanola beat Oriental 2-1 in Segunda División on April 10, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Eduardo Martínez Monegal in Canelones.