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Oriental vs Cerrito — Segunda División 2026

Oriental
Oriental
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cerrito
Cerrito
7/13/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 11Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Oriental41%
×Draw27%
Cerrito32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriental
1.32
Cerrito
1.15

Oriental creates 15% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 96 away

creates per match

Oriental
1.20
Cerrito
1.09

allows per match

Oriental
1.20
Cerrito
1.44

finishing

Oriental+0.00on par
Cerrito+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental ↓

Cerrito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Oriental or draw
68%
Oriental or Cerrito
73%
Draw or Cerrito
59%

Winning margin

Oriental wins by 2+
18%
Cerrito wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oriental 1+ goals
73%
Oriental 2+ goals
38%
Oriental 3+ goals
15%
Cerrito 1+ goals
68%
Cerrito 2+ goals
32%
Cerrito 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oriental (draw refunded)
56%
Cerrito (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriental at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

Cerrito away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriental attack 1.20 + Cerrito defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cerrito attack 1.09 + Oriental defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oriental scores more
41%
level
27%
Cerrito scores more
32%

Oriental at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oriental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriental vs Cerrito

Oriental beat Cerrito 2-1 in Segunda División on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Palermo in Montevideo.