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Oriental Lisboa vs Olímpico do Montijo — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Oriental Lisboa
Oriental Lisboa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olímpico do Montijo
Olímpico do Montijo
4/11/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 22Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Oriental Lisboa45%
×Draw28%
Olímpico do Montijo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oriental Lisboa
1.32
Olímpico do Montijo
0.96

Oriental Lisboa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Oriental Lisboa
0.64
Olímpico do Montijo
0.82

allows per match

Oriental Lisboa
1.09
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00

finishing

Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par
Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental Lisboa ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Oriental Lisboa or draw
73%
Oriental Lisboa or Olímpico do Montijo
72%
Draw or Olímpico do Montijo
55%

Winning margin

Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+
21%
Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals
73%
Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals
38%
Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals
15%
Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals
62%
Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals
25%
Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)
62%
Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriental Lisboa at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.64 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Olímpico do Montijo attack 0.82 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oriental Lisboa scores more
45%
level
28%
Olímpico do Montijo scores more
27%

Oriental Lisboa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oriental Lisboa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oriental Lisboa vs Olímpico do Montijo

Oriental Lisboa beat Olímpico do Montijo 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema in Lisboa.