Oriental Lisboa 1–1 Fontinhas: Result & Stats

Oriental Lisboa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fontinhas

2/28/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 18Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Oriental Lisboa29%

×Draw32%

Fontinhas39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriental LisboaExpected goals in this matchFontinhas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.00

Oriental Lisboa

0.82

Fontinhas

1.00

Fontinhas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.64

creates per match

0.91

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Oriental Lisboa

0.64

Fontinhas

0.91

allows per match

Oriental Lisboa

1.09

Fontinhas

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental Lisboa ↓

Fontinhas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Oriental Lisboa or draw

61%

Oriental Lisboa or Fontinhas

68%

Draw or Fontinhas

71%

Winning margin

Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+

9%

Fontinhas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals

56%

Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals

20%

Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals

5%

Fontinhas 1+ goals

63%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

26%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)

43%

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriental Lisboa at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.64 + Fontinhas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Fontinhas attack 0.91 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oriental Lisboa scores more

29%

level

32%

Fontinhas scores more

39%

Fontinhas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff