Oriental Lisboa 0–1 Fafe: Result & Stats

Oriental Lisboa

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fafe

9/21/2025

Taça de Portugal · Round of 128Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Oriental Lisboa20%

×Draw29%

Fafe52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriental LisboaExpected goals in this matchFafe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.31

Oriental Lisboa

0.69

Fafe

1.31

Fafe creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.14

creates per match

1.63

1.00

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Oriental Lisboa

1.14

Fafe

1.63

allows per match

Oriental Lisboa

1.00

Fafe

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental Lisboa ↓

Fafe →

0–014%

0–118%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Oriental Lisboa or draw

48%

Oriental Lisboa or Fafe

71%

Draw or Fafe

80%

Winning margin

Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+

Fafe wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals

50%

Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals

15%

Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals

Fafe 1+ goals

73%

Fafe 2+ goals

38%

Fafe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)

28%

Fafe (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Oriental Lisboa at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Oriental Lisboa attack 1.14 + Fafe defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.69

Fafe attack 1.63 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oriental Lisboa scores more

20%

level

29%

Fafe scores more

52%

Fafe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff