Oriental Lisboa 0–0 Belenenses II: Result & Stats

Oriental Lisboa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belenenses II

1/3/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 10Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Oriental Lisboa37%

×Draw32%

Belenenses II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriental LisboaExpected goals in this matchBelenenses II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.91

Oriental Lisboa

1.00

Belenenses II

0.91

Oriental Lisboa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.64

creates per match

0.73

1.09

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Oriental Lisboa

0.64

Belenenses II

0.73

allows per match

Oriental Lisboa

1.09

Belenenses II

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Belenenses II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental Lisboa ↓

Belenenses II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Oriental Lisboa or draw

68%

Oriental Lisboa or Belenenses II

68%

Draw or Belenenses II

63%

Winning margin

Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+

14%

Belenenses II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals

63%

Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals

26%

Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals

8%

Belenenses II 1+ goals

60%

Belenenses II 2+ goals

23%

Belenenses II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)

54%

Belenenses II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriental Lisboa at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Belenenses II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.64 + Belenenses II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.00

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oriental Lisboa scores more

37%

level

32%

Belenenses II scores more

32%

Oriental Lisboa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oriental Lisboa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff