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Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Superettan 2026

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
G. Broman 43' (OG)
A. Mujanić 24' (pen)
A. Andreasson 7'
A. Bitiqi 90+4'
I. Bjerkebo 51'
K. Čustović 49'
9/28/2024SuperettanSuperettan · Round 25Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Orgryte IS49%
×Draw21%
Varbergs BoIS FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
2.05
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.54

Orgryte IS creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
2.33
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.50

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.58
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.77

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.80scores more
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.21scores more

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
71%
Orgryte IS or Varbergs BoIS FC
79%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
51%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
29%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
87%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
61%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
33%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
79%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
45%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
63%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.58 · 8 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.77 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 2.33 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.05

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.50 + Orgryte IS defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
49%
level
21%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
29%

Orgryte IS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. MujanićOrgryte ISOrgryte IS · M
8.2

Match Events

7'
A. Andreasson
24'
A. MujanićPenalty
43'
G. BromanOwn goal
46'
N. Dahlström← K. Appiah Nyarko
49'
K. Čustović
51'
I. Bjerkebo
63'
J. Azulay← A. Faye
64'
C. Vindehall← W. Kenndal
64'
W. Svensson← F. Trpcevski
66'
M. Tokich← R. Tranberg
83'
D. Montiel← A. Kurochkin
83'
A. Bitiqi← I. Bjerkebo
83'
O. Alfonsi← O. Edlund
90+4'
A. Bitiqi

Possession

45%Orgryte

Shots

22Orgryte

Pass accuracy

49%Orgryte

Statistics

OrgryteVarbergs
Overview
45%Possession55%
22Total Shots22
3.25Expected Goals (xG)2.51
5Corners5
9Fouls10
Shots
22Total Shots22
7On Target10
8Off Target6
6Blocked5
10Inside Box12
12Outside Box10
Passing
45%Possession55%
432Total Passes568
359Accurate Passes493
83%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
7Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Superettan: Orgryte IS 3–3 Varbergs BoIS FC

Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 3-3 in Superettan on September 28, 2024.

Goals: A. Andreasson (7'), A. Mujanić (24' pen), G. Broman (43' o.g.), K. Čustović (49'), I. Bjerkebo (51'), A. Bitiqi (90+4').

Varbergs BoIS FC controlled possession (55%) and registered 22 shots to 22.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.