Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orgryte IS vs Syrianska FC — Superettan 2018

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
6/4/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 11Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orgryte IS56%
×Draw23%
Syrianska FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
1.83
Syrianska FC
1.04

Orgryte IS creates 76% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
1.67
Syrianska FC
0.87

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.21
Syrianska FC
2.00

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
79%
Orgryte IS or Syrianska FC
77%
Draw or Syrianska FC
44%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
32%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
84%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
54%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
28%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
65%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
28%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
72%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + Orgryte IS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
56%
level
23%
Syrianska FC scores more
21%

Orgryte IS at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Orgryte IS 2–0 Syrianska FC

Orgryte IS beat Syrianska FC 2-0 in Superettan on June 4, 2019.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg).