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Orgryte IS vs Orebro SK — Superettan 2026

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Orebro SK
Orebro SK
4/19/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 4Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Orgryte IS51%
×Draw24%
Orebro SK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
1.73
Orebro SK
1.15

Orgryte IS creates 50% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 68 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
1.67
Orebro SK
1.09

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.21
Orebro SK
1.79

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
Orebro SK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Orebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
75%
Orgryte IS or Orebro SK
76%
Draw or Orebro SK
49%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
28%
Orebro SK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
82%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
52%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
25%
Orebro SK 1+ goals
68%
Orebro SK 2+ goals
32%
Orebro SK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
67%
Orebro SK (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Orebro SK away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.79 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + Orebro SK defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Orebro SK attack 1.09 + Orgryte IS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
51%
level
24%
Orebro SK scores more
25%

Orgryte IS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Orgryte IS 3–0 Orebro SK

Orgryte IS beat Orebro SK 3-0 in Superettan on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.