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Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF — Superettan 2026

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
8/17/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 20Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orgryte IS40%
×Draw26%
Mjallby AIF34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
1.40
Mjallby AIF
1.27

Orgryte IS creates 10% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
1.67
Mjallby AIF
1.33

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.13

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
66%
Orgryte IS or Mjallby AIF
74%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
60%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
19%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
75%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
41%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
17%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
72%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
36%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
54%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mjallby AIF attack 1.33 + Orgryte IS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
40%
level
26%
Mjallby AIF scores more
34%

Orgryte IS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Orgryte IS 1–1 Mjallby AIF

Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in Superettan on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg).