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Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra — Superettan 2026

Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
4/24/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 4Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Orgryte IS46%
×Draw25%
Jonkopings Sodra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orgryte IS
1.61
Jonkopings Sodra
1.25

Orgryte IS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 90 away

creates per match

Orgryte IS
1.67
Jonkopings Sodra
1.30

allows per match

Orgryte IS
1.21
Jonkopings Sodra
1.56

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par
Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw
70%
Orgryte IS or Jonkopings Sodra
75%
Draw or Jonkopings Sodra
54%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+
23%
Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals
80%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
48%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
22%
Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
71%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
36%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
61%
Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.21 · 122 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.67 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + Orgryte IS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orgryte IS scores more
46%
level
25%
Jonkopings Sodra scores more
30%

Orgryte IS at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orgryte IS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orgryte IS vs Jonkopings Sodra

Orgryte IS and Jonkopings Sodra drew 2-2 in Superettan on April 24, 2023.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.