Orgryte IS 3–2 IF Elfsborg: Result & Stats

Orgryte IS

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

IF Elfsborg

N. Bärkroth 74'

N. Christoffersson 66', 17'

N. Söderberg 35'

J. Abdulai 27'

2/24/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Orgryte IS18%

×Draw21%

IF Elfsborg61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orgryte ISExpected goals in this matchIF Elfsborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.98

Orgryte IS

0.95

IF Elfsborg

1.98

IF Elfsborg creates 108% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

2.36

1.60

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Orgryte IS

1.20

IF Elfsborg

2.36

allows per match

Orgryte IS

1.60

IF Elfsborg

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orgryte IS ↓

IF Elfsborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Orgryte IS or draw

39%

Orgryte IS or IF Elfsborg

79%

Draw or IF Elfsborg

82%

Winning margin

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

6%

IF Elfsborg wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

61%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

25%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

7%

IF Elfsborg 1+ goals

86%

IF Elfsborg 2+ goals

59%

IF Elfsborg 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

22%

IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orgryte IS at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orgryte IS attack 1.20 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + Orgryte IS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Orgryte IS scores more

18%

level

21%

IF Elfsborg scores more

61%

IF Elfsborg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

I. Buhari← G. Henriksson

17'

N. Christoffersson

20'

N. Söderberg← S. Holmén

27'

35'

36'

44'

45+1'

66'

74'

76'

V. Lundberg← C. Vindehall

77'

C. Jebara← A. Baldursson

78'

B. Zeneli← G. Rapp

86'

N. Gullbrandsen← N. Bärkroth

90+3'

A. Rahm

90'

O. Johansson← A. Andreasson

Orgryte

IF

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bärkroth

⚽2

Christoff

Manager: A. Holmberg

76'▲V. Lundberg←▼C. Vindehall

86'▲N. Gullbrandsen←▼N. Bärkroth

90'▲O. Johansson←▼A. Andreasson

Orgryte IS substitutes

LundbergGullbrandsenJohanssonAbukarVennbergAlderHakanssonJassim

Manager: J. Thelin

15'▲I. Buhari←▼G. Henriksson

20'▲N. Söderberg←▼S. Holmén

77'▲C. Jebara←▼A. Baldursson

78'▲B. Zeneli←▼G. Rapp

IF Elfsborg substitutes

BuhariSöderbergJebaraZeneliBomanUppenbergFrickKaibOuma

Match Recap: Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg

Orgryte IS beat IF Elfsborg 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on February 24, 2024.

Goals: N. Christoffersson (17', 66'), J. Abdulai (27'), N. Söderberg (35'), N. Bärkroth (74').

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.

Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Orgryte IS vs IF Elfsborg