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Orense SC vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
9/14/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 6Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC38%
×Draw27%
Universidad Catolica35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.28
Universidad Catolica
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 132 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.32
Universidad Catolica
1.42

allows per match

Orense SC
1.02
Universidad Catolica
1.24

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
65%
Orense SC or Universidad Catolica
73%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
62%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
17%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
72%
Orense SC 2+ goals
37%
Orense SC 3+ goals
14%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
70%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
34%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
52%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Universidad Catolica attack 1.42 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orense SC scores more
38%
level
27%
Universidad Catolica scores more
35%

Orense SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orense SC vs Universidad Catolica

Orense SC and Universidad Catolica drew 2-2 in Liga Pro on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.