Orense SC 1–0 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Orense SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Universidad Catolica

R. Calderón 6'

5/1/2022

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 11Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Orense SC45%

×Draw26%

Universidad Catolica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Orense SC

1.50

Universidad Catolica

1.17

Orense SC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.86

creates per match

1.18

1.17

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Orense SC

1.86

Universidad Catolica

1.18

allows per match

Orense SC

1.17

Universidad Catolica

1.13

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Orense SC-0.15scores less

Universidad Catolica-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

70%

Orense SC or Universidad Catolica

74%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

55%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

22%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

78%

Orense SC 2+ goals

44%

Orense SC 3+ goals

19%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

69%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

33%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

60%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.17 · 7 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.86 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Universidad Catolica attack 1.18 + Orense SC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orense SC scores more

45%

level

26%

Universidad Catolica scores more

30%

Orense SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

6'

35'

37'

38'

38'

46'

58'

W. Chalá← L. Alzugaray

58'

A. Rodríguez← W. Cevallos

60'

Gabriel Corozo← R. Calderón

66'

Gregori Anangonó

69'

C. Oña← G. Anangonó

73'

E. Montaño← L. Villagra

73'

75'

79'

82'

83'

83'

84'

89'

89'

89'

90+5'

90+5'

Shots

Statistics

OrenseUniversidad

Overview

4Total Shots2

2Corners4

10Fouls16

Shots

4Total Shots2

4On Target1

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0