Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orense SC vs Puerto Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puerto Quito
Puerto Quito
9/29/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 34Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Orense SC50%
×Draw27%
Puerto Quito23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.41
Puerto Quito
0.85

Orense SC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 85 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.45
Puerto Quito
0.76

allows per match

Orense SC
0.95
Puerto Quito
1.36

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Puerto Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Puerto Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
77%
Orense SC or Puerto Quito
73%
Draw or Puerto Quito
50%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
25%
Puerto Quito wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
76%
Orense SC 2+ goals
41%
Orense SC 3+ goals
17%
Puerto Quito 1+ goals
57%
Puerto Quito 2+ goals
21%
Puerto Quito 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
69%
Puerto Quito (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

Puerto Quito away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.45 + Puerto Quito defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Puerto Quito attack 0.76 + Orense SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orense SC scores more
50%
level
27%
Puerto Quito scores more
23%

Orense SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orense SC vs Puerto Quito

Orense SC beat Puerto Quito 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).