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Orense SC vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
Preview
20:00
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
7/26/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 22Estadio 9 de Mayo
Big match
38%
Independiente del Valle
model favours
36%27%38%

Independiente del Valle have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC36%
×Draw27%
Independiente del Valle38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.25
Independiente del Valle
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 133 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.32
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Orense SC
1.02
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
62%
Orense SC or Independiente del Valle
73%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
64%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
15%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
71%
Orense SC 2+ goals
36%
Orense SC 3+ goals
13%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
72%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
37%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
49%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orense SC scores more
36%
level
27%
Independiente del Valle scores more
38%

Independiente del Valle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Independiente del Valle have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 79% of Independiente del Valle’s matches
  • Independiente del Valle have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 64% over 2.5)
  • Orense SC sit 16, Independiente del Valle 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Orense SC
Balanced
Independiente del Valle
Possession-dominant
49%Possession60%
79%Pass accuracy87%
10.2Shots15.6
1.21xGBiggest gap2.09
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Orense SCIndependiente del Valle

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Orense SC
3
Draws
7
Independiente del Valle
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 50%
0–20–01–21–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SC
LDLLL
Valle
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orense SC face Independiente del Valle (Liga Pro)

Liga Pro returns with Orense SC hosting Independiente del Valle. Match starts July 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Orense SC host Independiente del Valle at Estadio 9 de Mayo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.