Orense SC 1–2 Independiente del Valle

Orense SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente del Valle

4/27/2025

Liga Pro · Round 10Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Orense SC36%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Orense SC

1.25

Independiente del Valle

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 134 away

1.32

creates per match

1.56

1.02

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Orense SC

1.32

Independiente del Valle

1.56

allows per match

Orense SC

1.02

Independiente del Valle

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

62%

Orense SC or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

64%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

15%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

71%

Orense SC 2+ goals

36%

Orense SC 3+ goals

13%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

72%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

37%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

49%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orense SC scores more

36%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

38%

Independiente del Valle at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff