Orense SC 1–2 Independiente del Valle

Orense SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

J. Andrade 61'

J. Bauman 79' (pen)

J. Ortiz 23'

8/6/2022

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 5Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Orense SC33%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orense SCExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.50

Orense SC

1.31

Independiente del Valle

1.50

Independiente del Valle creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.86

creates per match

1.84

1.17

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Orense SC

1.86

Independiente del Valle

1.84

allows per match

Orense SC

1.17

Independiente del Valle

0.76

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Orense SC-0.15scores less

Independiente del Valle+0.04on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw

58%

Orense SC or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

67%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+

14%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals

73%

Orense SC 2+ goals

38%

Orense SC 3+ goals

14%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

78%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

44%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)

44%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.17 · 7 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.76 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.86 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.31

Independiente del Valle attack 1.84 + Orense SC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Orense SC scores more

33%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

42%

Independiente del Valle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

J. Ortiz↳ J. Bauman

38'

Cristian Pellerano

45+1'

Marcos Acosta

46'

J. Andrade← S. Portocarrero

55'

E. Pluas← W. Godoy

55'

Gabriel Corozo← M. Quiñonez

61'

J. Andrade↳ L. Villagra

68'

M. Fernández← W. Vargas

68'

L. Faravelli← C. Pellerano

68'

M. Angulo← D. Cabezas

73'

Gabriel Achilier

73'

Y. Medina← A. Minda

78'

J. Angulo← R. Burbano

79'

J. BaumanPenalty

81'

R. Schunke← L. Díaz

82'

E. Montaño← O. Quiñonez

87'

Marco Angulo

Possession

Shots

Statistics

OrenseIndependiente

Overview

52%Possession48%

3Total Shots4

5Corners2

5Fouls8

Shots

3Total Shots4

2On Target4

Passing

52%Possession48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides1