Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orense SC vs Imbabura — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Imbabura
Imbabura
3/20/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 4Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orense SC56%
×Draw23%
Imbabura21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.83
Imbabura
1.01

Orense SC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.32
Imbabura
1.00

allows per match

Orense SC
1.02
Imbabura
2.33

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Imbabura+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Imbabura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
79%
Orense SC or Imbabura
77%
Draw or Imbabura
44%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
32%
Imbabura wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
84%
Orense SC 2+ goals
54%
Orense SC 3+ goals
28%
Imbabura 1+ goals
64%
Imbabura 2+ goals
27%
Imbabura 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
73%
Imbabura (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 105 matches

Imbabura away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.32 + Imbabura defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Imbabura attack 1.00 + Orense SC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Orense SC scores more
56%
level
23%
Imbabura scores more
21%

Orense SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Orense SC 1–2 Imbabura

Imbabura beat Orense SC 2-1 in Liga Pro on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo in Machala.