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Orense SC vs Duros del Balon — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Orense SC
Orense SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
4/13/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 6Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Orense SC50%
×Draw26%
Duros del Balon24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.49
Duros del Balon
0.95

Orense SC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.45
Duros del Balon
0.96

allows per match

Orense SC
0.95
Duros del Balon
1.53

finishing

Orense SC+0.00on par
Duros del Balon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Duros del Balon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
76%
Orense SC or Duros del Balon
74%
Draw or Duros del Balon
50%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
25%
Duros del Balon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
77%
Orense SC 2+ goals
44%
Orense SC 3+ goals
19%
Duros del Balon 1+ goals
61%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
25%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
67%
Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.95 · 42 matches

Duros del Balon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.45 + Duros del Balon defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Duros del Balon attack 0.96 + Orense SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orense SC scores more
50%
level
26%
Duros del Balon scores more
24%

Orense SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orense SC vs Duros del Balon

Orense SC beat Duros del Balon 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).