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Orense SC vs Aucas — Liga Pro 2026

Orense SC
Orense SC
Preview
21:30
Aucas
Aucas
7/23/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 21Estadio 9 de Mayo
Big match
47%
Orense SC
model favours
47%25%29%

67% of Orense SC’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Orense SC47%
×Draw25%
Aucas29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orense SC
1.59
Aucas
1.19

Orense SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Orense SC
1.81
Aucas
1.19

allows per match

Orense SC
1.18
Aucas
1.37

finishing

Orense SC-0.18scores less
Aucas+0.14scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orense SC ↓

Aucas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orense SC or draw
71%
Orense SC or Aucas
75%
Draw or Aucas
53%

Winning margin

Orense SC wins by 2+
24%
Aucas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Orense SC 1+ goals
80%
Orense SC 2+ goals
47%
Orense SC 3+ goals
21%
Aucas 1+ goals
70%
Aucas 2+ goals
33%
Aucas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Orense SC (draw refunded)
62%
Aucas (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orense SC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.18 · 8 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orense SC attack 1.81 + Aucas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.59

Aucas attack 1.19 + Orense SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orense SC scores more
47%
level
25%
Aucas scores more
29%

Orense SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orense SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Orense SC sit 15, Aucas 4 in the table
  • Orense SC fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Orense SC
Balanced
Aucas
Defensively solid
50%Possession52%
78%Pass accuracy80%
9.8ShotsBiggest gap11.7
1.39xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Orense SCAucas

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Orense SC
3
Draws
5
Aucas
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 40%
2–30–02–14–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SC
LLDLL
Aucas
WLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Orense SC vs Aucas — Match Preview

Orense SC face Aucas on July 23, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Orense SC host Aucas at Estadio 9 de Mayo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.