Aucas 3–2 Orense SC: Result & Stats | Liga Pro

Aucas

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Orense SC

3/24/2026

Liga Pro · Round 6Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Aucas55%

×Draw25%

Orense SC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.86

Aucas

1.59

Orense SC

0.86

Aucas creates 85% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 104 away

1.75

creates per match

0.69

1.04

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Aucas

1.75

Orense SC

0.69

allows per match

Aucas

1.04

Orense SC

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par

Orense SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

80%

Aucas or Orense SC

75%

Draw or Orense SC

45%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

29%

Orense SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

80%

Aucas 2+ goals

47%

Aucas 3+ goals

21%

Orense SC 1+ goals

58%

Orense SC 2+ goals

21%

Orense SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

73%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 134 matches

Orense SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.43 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.75 + Orense SC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Orense SC attack 0.69 + Aucas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aucas scores more

55%

level

25%

Orense SC scores more

20%

Aucas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff