Orenburg 2–2 Zenit Saint Petersburg: Result & Stats

Orenburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Zenit Saint Petersburg

5/20/2023

Premier League · Round 28Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Orenburg29%

×Draw27%

Zenit Saint Petersburg45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrenburgExpected goals in this matchZenit Saint Petersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.42

Orenburg

1.08

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.42

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

1.39

creates per match

1.64

1.20

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Orenburg

1.39

Zenit Saint Petersburg

1.64

allows per match

Orenburg

1.20

Zenit Saint Petersburg

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw

55%

Orenburg or Zenit Saint Petersburg

73%

Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg

71%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+

11%

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals

66%

Orenburg 2+ goals

29%

Orenburg 3+ goals

10%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals

76%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals

41%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)

39%

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.39 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.08

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.64 + Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Orenburg scores more

29%

level

27%

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more

45%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff