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FC Orenburg vs Zenit — Cup 2019

FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 4
Zenit
Zenit
A. Revazov 67'
A. Tataev 32'
V. Bubanja 24'
M. Glushenkov 56', 2'
M. Cassierra 43' (pen)
D. Santos 22'
A. Erokhin 12'
8/26/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 3Luzhniki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Orenburg28%
×Draw23%
Zenit49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Orenburg
1.31
Zenit
1.79

Zenit creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Orenburg
1.71
Zenit
1.45

allows per match

FC Orenburg
2.12
Zenit
0.91

finishing

FC Orenburg+0.00on par
Zenit+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Orenburg ↓

Zenit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Orenburg or draw
51%
FC Orenburg or Zenit
77%
Draw or Zenit
72%

Winning margin

FC Orenburg wins by 2+
12%
Zenit wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

FC Orenburg 1+ goals
73%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
38%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
14%
Zenit 1+ goals
83%
Zenit 2+ goals
53%
Zenit 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
37%
Zenit (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Orenburg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Zenit away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Orenburg attack 1.71 + Zenit defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zenit attack 1.45 + FC Orenburg defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Orenburg scores more
28%
level
23%
Zenit scores more
49%

Zenit at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
M. Glushenkov↳ M. Cassierra
12'
A. Erokhin↳ Y. Mikhailov
22'
D. Santos↳ M. Glushenkov
24'
V. Bubanja
32'
A. Tataev↳ Du Queiroz
41'
Stanislav Poroykov
43'
M. CassierraPenalty
46'
A. Kasimov← M. Syshchenko
46'
S. Oganesyan← V. Bubanja
55'
Atsamaz Revazov
56'
M. Glushenkov
64'
S. Erakovic← Nino
64'
Pedrinho← D. Santos
67'
A. Revazov↳ G. Guzina
68'
V. Kamilov← A. Revazov
68'
Alexandre Jesus← G. Guzina
73'
Y. Gorshkov← M. Cassierra
77'
D. Vedernikov← G. Zotov
83'
A. Mostovoy← N. Alip
83'
V. Shilov← M. Glushenkov

Statistics

FCZenit
Discipline
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: FC Orenburg vs Zenit

Zenit beat FC Orenburg 5-3 in Cup on August 26, 2025.

Goals: M. Glushenkov (2', 56'), A. Erokhin (12'), D. Santos (22'), V. Bubanja (24'), A. Tataev (32'), M. Cassierra (43' pen), A. Revazov (67').

The match was played at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow.