Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orenburg vs Spartak Moscow — Cup 2019

Orenburg
Orenburgadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
11/29/2023CupCup · Premier League Path - Quarter-finalsStadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orenburg31%
×Draw22%
Spartak Moscow47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.48
Spartak Moscow
1.87

Spartak Moscow creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.71
Spartak Moscow
1.61

allows per match

Orenburg
2.12
Spartak Moscow
1.25

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
53%
Orenburg or Spartak Moscow
78%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
69%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
14%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
77%
Orenburg 2+ goals
43%
Orenburg 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
85%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
56%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
40%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.71 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spartak Moscow attack 1.61 + Orenburg defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orenburg scores more
31%
level
22%
Spartak Moscow scores more
47%

Spartak Moscow at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Orenburg 1–0 Spartak Moscow

Orenburg beat Spartak Moscow 1-0 in Cup on November 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.