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Orenburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow — Premier League 2018

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
8/12/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Gazovik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Orenburg38%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Moscow36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.41
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.39
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.52

allows per match

Orenburg
1.20
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.43

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
64%
Orenburg or Lokomotiv Moscow
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow
62%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
18%
Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
76%
Orenburg 2+ goals
41%
Orenburg 3+ goals
17%
Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
74%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
39%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
52%
Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.39 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.41

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.52 + Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orenburg scores more
38%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
36%

Orenburg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Orenburg 1–0 Lokomotiv Moscow

Orenburg beat Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 in Premier League on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Gazovik Stadium in Rostoshi.