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Lokomotiv vs FC Orenburg — Cup 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
10/1/2024CupCup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 4RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lokomotiv61%
×Draw21%
FC Orenburg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.97
FC Orenburg
0.94

Lokomotiv creates 110% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.00
FC Orenburg
0.94

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.95
FC Orenburg
1.94

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

FC Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
83%
Lokomotiv or FC Orenburg
79%
Draw or FC Orenburg
39%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
37%
FC Orenburg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
86%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
58%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
31%
FC Orenburg 1+ goals
61%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
24%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
78%
FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

FC Orenburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.00 + FC Orenburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.97

FC Orenburg attack 0.94 + Lokomotiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
61%
level
21%
FC Orenburg scores more
17%

Lokomotiv at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Lokomotiv 2–1 FC Orenburg

Lokomotiv beat FC Orenburg 2-1 in Cup on October 1, 2024.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moskva.