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Orenburg vs Gyirmot SE — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
1 – 2
Gyirmot SE
Gyirmot SE
6/29/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Franz-Fürst-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Orenburg49%
×Draw27%
Gyirmot SE24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.40
Gyirmot SE
0.90

Orenburg creates 56% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.80
Gyirmot SE
1.00

allows per match

Orenburg
0.80
Gyirmot SE
1.00

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Gyirmot SE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Gyirmot SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
76%
Orenburg or Gyirmot SE
73%
Draw or Gyirmot SE
51%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
24%
Gyirmot SE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
75%
Orenburg 2+ goals
41%
Orenburg 3+ goals
17%
Gyirmot SE 1+ goals
59%
Gyirmot SE 2+ goals
23%
Gyirmot SE 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
67%
Gyirmot SE (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Gyirmot SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.80 + Gyirmot SE defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gyirmot SE attack 1.00 + Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orenburg scores more
49%
level
27%
Gyirmot SE scores more
24%

Orenburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Orenburg 1–2 Gyirmot SE

Gyirmot SE beat Orenburg 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 29, 2021.

The match was played at Franz-Fürst-Stadion in Wiener Neudorf.