Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Orenburg vs Fehérvár FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
2 – 0
Fehérvár FC
Fehérvár FC
6/20/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz Eggendorf ASK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Orenburg49%
×Draw26%
Fehérvár FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.52
Fehérvár FC
1.02

Orenburg creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.80
Fehérvár FC
1.25

allows per match

Orenburg
0.80
Fehérvár FC
1.25

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Fehérvár FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
75%
Orenburg or Fehérvár FC
74%
Draw or Fehérvár FC
51%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
25%
Fehérvár FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
78%
Orenburg 2+ goals
45%
Orenburg 3+ goals
20%
Fehérvár FC 1+ goals
64%
Fehérvár FC 2+ goals
27%
Fehérvár FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
66%
Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.80 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fehérvár FC attack 1.25 + Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Orenburg scores more
49%
level
26%
Fehérvár FC scores more
25%

Orenburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orenburg vs Fehérvár FC

Orenburg beat Fehérvár FC 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Eggendorf ASK in Eggendorf.