Orenburg 0–0 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats | Cup

Orenburg

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel Voronezh

9/21/2023

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 4Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Orenburg39%

×Draw25%

Fakel Voronezh36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrenburgExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.43

Orenburg

1.49

Fakel Voronezh

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

1.71

creates per match

0.73

2.12

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Orenburg

1.71

Fakel Voronezh

0.73

allows per match

Orenburg

2.12

Fakel Voronezh

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw

64%

Orenburg or Fakel Voronezh

75%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

61%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+

19%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals

77%

Orenburg 2+ goals

44%

Orenburg 3+ goals

19%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

76%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

42%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)

52%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.71 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.73 + Orenburg defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Orenburg scores more

39%

level

25%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

36%

Orenburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff