Orenburg 0–6 CSKA Moscow: Result & Stats | Cup

Orenburg

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

CSKA Moscow

N. Ermakov 89'

M. Kislyak 87'

F. Chalov 45+2'

M. Gajić 22'

B. Zaynutdinov 18'

Y. Arbuzov 12'

7/26/2023

Cup · Premier League Path - Group Stage - 1Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orenburg27%

×Draw23%

CSKA Moscow50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OrenburgExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.85

Orenburg

1.31

CSKA Moscow

1.85

CSKA Moscow creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

1.71

creates per match

1.58

2.12

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Orenburg

1.71

CSKA Moscow

1.58

allows per match

Orenburg

2.12

CSKA Moscow

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par

CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

CSKA Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw

50%

Orenburg or CSKA Moscow

77%

Draw or CSKA Moscow

73%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+

12%

CSKA Moscow wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals

73%

Orenburg 2+ goals

38%

Orenburg 3+ goals

14%

CSKA Moscow 1+ goals

84%

CSKA Moscow 2+ goals

55%

CSKA Moscow 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)

35%

CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.71 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.31

CSKA Moscow attack 1.58 + Orenburg defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orenburg scores more

27%

level

23%

CSKA Moscow scores more

50%

CSKA Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

14'

17'

18'

22'

45+2'

46'

46'

M. Mukhin← K. Kuchaev

46'

E. Noskov← B. Zaynutdinov

46'

A. Zabolotny← F. Chalov

53'

Matvey Lukin

55'

M. Kislyak← Y. Arbuzov

56'

62'

62'

64'

66'

68'

D. Vorobjev← S. Oganesyan

68'

R. Gojković← Y. Kovalev

68'

T. Muro← I. Bašić

87'

M. Kislyak

89'

N. Ermakov

Shots

Statistics

OrenburgCSKA

Overview

10Total Shots16

3Corners1

9Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots16

5On Target8

3Off Target4

2Blocked4

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1