CSKA Moscow vs FC Orenburg — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 91+ matches
CSKA Moscow58%
FC Orenburg19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CSKA Moscow creates 92% more chances
Season form · 120 home / 91 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CSKA Moscow ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CSKA Moscow at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 120 matches
FC Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CSKA Moscow attack 1.87 + FC Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.88
FC Orenburg attack 1.05 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
CSKA Moscow at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC Orenburg substitutes
Zenit
FC Krasnodar
Lokomotiv
Spartak MoscowCSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Krylia Sovetov
Dinamo Makhachkala
AkronFC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
UralIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
CSKA Moscow host FC Orenburg on Sunday, 4 August 2024 at 12:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: CSKA Moscow vs FC Orenburg
CSKA Moscow beat FC Orenburg 5-1 in Premier League on August 4, 2024.
Goals: T. Musaev (23'), I. Diveev (30', 59'), D. Rybchinskiy (31'), I. Oblyakov (39'), Khellven (71').
FC Orenburg controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 14.
The match was played at VEB Arena in Moskva.