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Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow — Premier League 2018

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
7/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Orenburg36%
×Draw27%
CSKA Moscow37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.23
CSKA Moscow
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 120 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.39
CSKA Moscow
1.34

allows per match

Orenburg
1.20
CSKA Moscow
1.06

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
63%
Orenburg or CSKA Moscow
73%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
64%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
15%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
71%
Orenburg 2+ goals
35%
Orenburg 3+ goals
13%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
72%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
36%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
49%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.39 + CSKA Moscow defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

CSKA Moscow attack 1.34 + Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Orenburg scores more
36%
level
27%
CSKA Moscow scores more
37%

CSKA Moscow at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Orenburg 0–4 CSKA Moscow

CSKA Moscow beat Orenburg 4-0 in Premier League on July 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.