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Orenburg vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2018

Orenburg
Orenburg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
11/1/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Stadion Gazovik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Orenburg54%
×Draw24%
Chertanovo Moscow22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orenburg
1.70
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00

Orenburg creates 70% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 54 away

creates per match

Orenburg
1.85
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

Orenburg
0.80
Chertanovo Moscow
1.54

finishing

Orenburg+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orenburg ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Orenburg or draw
78%
Orenburg or Chertanovo Moscow
76%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
46%

Winning margin

Orenburg wins by 2+
29%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Orenburg 1+ goals
82%
Orenburg 2+ goals
51%
Orenburg 3+ goals
24%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
63%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
26%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Orenburg (draw refunded)
71%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orenburg at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orenburg attack 1.85 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.70

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Orenburg defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Orenburg scores more
54%
level
24%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
22%

Orenburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Orenburg 3–1 Chertanovo Moscow

Orenburg beat Chertanovo Moscow 3-1 in First League on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gazovik in Rostoshi.