Orenburg vs Arsenal Tula — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 61+ matches
Orenburg50%
Arsenal Tula24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Orenburg creates 55% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 61 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Orenburg ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Orenburg at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 89 matches
Arsenal Tula away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 61 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Orenburg attack 1.39 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57
Arsenal Tula attack 0.82 + Orenburg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Orenburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Zenit
FC Krasnodar
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Krylia Sovetov
Dinamo Makhachkala
AkronFC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
UralIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Orenburg host Arsenal Tula on Monday, 29 April 2019 at 14:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Orenburg 1–1 Arsenal Tula
Orenburg and Arsenal Tula drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 29, 2019.
The match was played at Gazovik Stadium in Rostoshi.